Nubwo kuba habaho intambara yeruye hagati ya Arabie Saoudite na Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abarabu (UAE) ‘biri kure’, ihangana riri kuvuka hagati y’ibihugu byombi riri guhindura isura ya politiki yo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati.
Mu gihe ubwato bw’intambara bwinshi bwa Amerika buri mu Kigobe cya Perse hafi ya Iran, kandi hakaba hari amagambo akomeye aturuka i Teheran, abasesenguzi mubya gisirikare baribaza niba Amerika ishobora gutera Iran n’ingaruka bizagira ku mibanire y’ibihugu by’Abarabu bikomeye bwo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati.
Ibyo birimo ibisanzwe bikorana na Iran n’ibindi bitayicira ‘akarurutega’.
Ariko kandi, hari ikindi kibazo kiri gututumba muri iki kigobe, kandi bishoboka ko cyakura kikaba kinini kurushaho.
Nubwo iki kibazo kidafite uburemere nk’ubw’ihangana hagati ya Amerika na Iran, gishobora guhungabanya aka karere gakize ku mutungo wa peteroli kandi kikagira ingaruka zikomeye kuri politiki ya Amerika n’ahandi ku isi.
Iki kibazo kireba umubano uri gusubira inyuma hagati y’inshuti ebyiri zikomeye za Amerika mu Kigobe—Arabie Saoudite na UAE.
Ingaruka z’iri hungabana ntizizagarukira mu karere gusa, ahubwo zizagera na kure, zigire ingaruka ku mutekano wa Amerika muri aka karere gakize kuri peteroli, ku nyungu zayo z’igihe kirekire mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati no ku biciro bya peteroli ku isi hose.
Kugeza vuba aha, benshi bakurikiranaga politiki yo mu Kigobe babonaga ko Arabie Saoudite na UAE byakorana bya hafi na Washington mu guhangana na Iran n’imitwe ishyigikiye no kugenzura umusaruro wa petelori n’ibiciro byayo.
Mu myaka ya 2010, cyane cyane nyuma y’uko igikomangoma Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) muri Arabie Saoudite kirazwe ingoma ndetse no gushimangira ubutegetsi bwa Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) nk’umutegetsi wa Abu Dhabi akaba na Perezida wa UAE, ibihugu byombi byagaragaraga nk’aho bifite politiki z’ububanyi n’amahanga zihuje cyane.
Ubufatanye bw’ibi bihugu muri Yemen, gufatanya kurwanya Umuryango wa Muslim Brotherhood nyuma y’Impinduramatwara z’Abarabu (Arab Spring), no guhangana n’imbaraga za Iran mu karere byatumye benshi bavuga ko havutse “Ubumwe bushya bw’ibihugu byo mu Kigobe” washoboraga guhindura politiki y’akarere.
Ariko inyuma y’iyo sura y’ubumwe, ibihugu byombi byari byaratangiye gahunda zikomeye zo kuvugurura ubukungu no kwagura ibikorwa byabyo mu mahanga, ibintu byaje kubishyira mu nzira zitandukanye.
Nubwo umubano wa dipolomasi ukiri mwiza kandi abayobozi bagakomeza kuganira, inkingi ubufatanye bwa Arabie Saoudite na UAE bwari bwubakiyeho zacitse intege.
Abasesenguzi benshi ubu bavuga ko umubano w’ibi bihugu atakiri ubufatanye bukomeye (alliance), ahubwo ari ihangana rigenzuwe—aho buri ruhande rushaka inyungu zarwo ariko rukirinda gutera intambwe ishobora guhungabanya ituze ry’Umuryango w’Ubufatanye bw’Ibihugu byo mu Kigobe (GCC).
Nyuma y’umwaka wa 2015, ibihugu byombi byakoze impinduka zikomeye imbere muri byo.
Arabie Saoudite yatangije gahunda ya Vision 2030 igamije kugabanya kwishingikiriza kuri peteroli, igamije gukurura ishoramari mpuzamahanga, no guhindura Riyadh umujyi w’ubucuruzi ku rwego mpuzamahanga.
UAE yo yakomeje guteza imbere ubucuruzi no gutanga serivisi ku rwego rwo hejuru cyane cyane i Dubai na Abu Dhabi.
Ku ikubitiro, izi gahunda zagaragaraga nk’izuzuzanya ariko muwa 2020 byaragaragaye ko harimo kwivuguruza.
The Economist n’ikinyamakuru The National Interest bivuga ko ibihugu byombi byifuzaga kwakira icyicaro gikuru cy’ibigo mpuzamahanga, kugira ibigo bikomeye by’indege ku rwego rw’isi, no kuba imiyoboro ihuza u Burayi, Aziya na Afurika.
Hagati y’umwaka wa 2021–2022, Arabie Saoudite yatangaje ko amasezerano y’amasoko ya Leta azahabwa gusa ibigo by’amahanga byimuriye icyicaro cyabyo muri Arabie Saoudite—ikintu cyafashwe nk’ihangana ryeruye kuri Dubai, yari isanzwe ari icyicaro cy’ibigo byinshi mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati.
Arabie Saoudite kandi yatangije kompanyi y’indege ya Riyadh Air, inagura cyane ibibuga by’indege mu rwego rwo guhangana na Emirates, Etihad na FlyDubai.
Mu rwego rw’umutekano w’Akarere, itandukaniro ryagaragaye cyane mu buryo ibihugu byombi byitwaye ku kibazo kiri kandi cyahoze muri Yemen.
Mu ntangiriro, ibihugu byombi byakoranye bya hafi muri Operation Decisive Storm mu mwaka wa 2015, bigamije gusubiza k’ubutegetsi Guverinoma ya Yemen yari yarirukanwe n’Abahouthi bashyigikiwe na Iran.
Ariko hagati ya 2017–2019, buri gihugu cyatangiye gukurikirana inyungu zacyo.
Arabie Saoudite yashyize imbere kurinda umupaka wayo no guhangana n’ibitero bya missile n’indege zitagira abapilote (drones) by’Abahouthi.
UAE yo yibanze ku kugenzura ibyambu n’inzira z’inyanja nka Bab al-Mandab no gushyigikira umutwe wa Southern Transitional Council (STC).
Ibi byatumye habaho kudahuza, ndetse rimwe na rimwe imitwe bashyigikiye ikagongana.
No mu bindi bihugu nka Sudani, ibitekerezo by’ibihugu byombi byaratandukanye: Arabie Saoudite ishyigikira ubutegetsi bwa gisirikare bwemewe, mu gihe hari raporo zivuga ko UAE ishyigikira Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Ku bijyanye na Israel, UAE isanganywe umubano na Yeruzalemu, mu gihe Arabie Saoudite itaratangaza ku mugaragaro umubano nk’uwo, kubera impungenge z’uko byagira ingaruka ku cyizere cyayo mu bihugu by’Abarabu n’Abayisilamu.
Nubwo ibihugu byombi bihuriye ku kutishimira Iran, uburyo bibyitwaraho buratandukanye.
Vuba aha, Arabie Saoudite yasinye amasezerano yo kongera kubana neza na Iran ibifashijwemo n’u Bushinwa, ibintu byahinduye byinshi mu mibanire yabyo.
Ku rwego rw’abayobozi, umubano hagati ya Mohammed bin Salman na Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed nawo wagize uruhare mu mwuka mubi uvugwa aha.
Mu ntangiriro, Bin Zayed yabonwaga nk’umujyanama wa Bin Salman ariko nyuma uyu yagaragaje ko afite icyerekezo cye kinini cyo kuyobora akarere, bituma habaho ihangana rwihishwa.
Nubwo hari iryo hangana mu bukungu no muri politiki, nta ruhande rusa n’urushaka ko umubano wangirika burundu kubera ko bafitanye inyungu mu bukungu no mu mutekano.
Byongeye kandi, ibihugu byombi ni inshuti za Amerika, ikintu kibabuza amakimbirane yeruye.
Nubwo ihangana ryabo rishingiye ku nyungu zifatika aho gushingira ku bitekerezo bya politiki, hari impungenge ko ryakongera gutera ikibazo gikomeye cyane cyane muri Yemen.
Icyahungabanya ibi bihugu cyatuma Akarere k’Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati cyane cyane mu bihugu byo mu Kigobe cya Perse gahungabana kurushaho.
