Banki Nkuru y’u Rwanda yazamuye Igipimo Ngenderwaho cy’Inyungu kigera kuri 8.75% kubera izamuka ry’ibiciro rikomeje kuba hejuru.
Komite ishinzwe Politiki y’Ifaranga muri Banki Nkuru y’u Rwanda (Monetary Policy Committee – MPC) kuri uyu wa Gatatu italiki 26 Kanama(8) 2026 yarateranye isuzuma uko ubukungu bwifashe mu Rwanda no ku rwego mpuzamahanga.
Yarebaga hamwe ibisabwa ngo ivugurure ibikwiye mu bukungu kandi ifate umwanzuro ku rwego rw’Igipimo Ngenderwaho cy’Inyungu cya Banki Nkuru (Central Bank Rate – CBR) ibi ikaba ari nabyo bishingirwaho mu kwaka inyungu za Banki z’ubucuruzi.
Hagati aho, ibiciro ku masoko byakomeje kuzamuka, biva kuri 9.1% mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2026 bikagera kuri 13.2% mu gihembwe cya kabiri, mbere yo kugera kuri 14.5% muri Nyakanga 2026.
Biteganyijwe ko impuzandengo y’izamuka ry’ibiciro mu mwaka wa 2026 izaba 13.1%, munsi gato y’uko byari biteganyijwe mbere( byari 13.9%).
Icyakora, Komite ishinzwe kureba ubudahanganwa bw’urwego rw’imari bagaragaje impamvu zishobora gukomeza kuzamura ibiciro.
Muri zo harimo kuba ikirere cya El Niño gishobora kugira ingaruka ku musaruro w’ibiribwa no ku biciro byabyo haba mu Rwanda no ku rwego mpuzamahanga.
Ikindi ni amakimbirane akomeje mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati ashobora gutuma ibiciro by’ibikomoka kuri peteroli n’ibindi bicuruzwa bikomeza kuba hejuru igihe kirekire.
Mu rwego rwo guhangana n’iri zamuka ry’ibiciro no kugabanya ingaruka zishobora kubaho mu gihe kiri imbere, iyo Komite yafashe umwanzuro wo kuzamura inyungu Ku nguzanyo ho 0.50%, iva kuri 8.25% igera kuri 8.75%.
Ibi-nk’uko BNR ibyemeza- bigaragaza ko ikomeje gukaza ingamba za politiki y’ifaranga hagamijwe kugenzura izamuka ry’ibiciro no kurinda agaciro k’ifaranga.
Biteganyijwe ko ibi bizafasha kugabanya umuvuduko w’izamuka ry’ibiciro no gutuma ibiciro ku masoko bidatumbagira, ahubwo bikaguma ku rwego rwifuzwa mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka wa 2027.
Ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bwakomeje kwihagararaho mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2026.
Ikindi BNR ivuga ko ari icyo kwishimira ni uko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bwazamutseho 10.0% ugereranyije n’igihe nk’icyo mu mwaka ushize mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2026, bitewe n’izamuka ryagaragaye mu nzego zitandukanye z’ubukungu.
Nubwo ku isi hakomeje kugaragara ibihe biteye ubwoba bigira ingaruka ku bukungu, ubw’u Rwanda bwakomeje kuzamuka mu gihembwe cya kabiri.
Ikimenyetso gikurikirana ibikorwa by’ubukungu (Composite Index of Economic Activities) cyazamutseho 10.9%, bikagaragaza ko ubukungu bukomeje gutera imbere ku muvuduko ushimishije.
Ku byerekeye ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga, imibare ya BNR igaragaza ko ibicuruzwa byoherezwa hanze byiyongereye ariko icyuho mu bucuruzi kiraguka.
Mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2026, ibicuruzwa byoherejwe mu mahanga byiyongereyeho 51.0%, ahanini bitewe n’izamuka rikomeye ry’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga by’umwihariko amabuye y’agaciro, yafashijwe n’ibiciro byiza ku masoko mpuzamahanga.
Ibindi bicuruzwa bitari bisanzwe byinjiriza igihugu amadovize na byo byazamutseho 39.4%, cyane cyane amavuta yo guteka atunganyijwe, sima n’ifu y’ingano.
Kongera kohereza mu mahanga ibicuruzwa byaturutse ahandi (re-exports) na byo byiyongereyeho 26.0%, bitewe n’uko ibihugu byo mu karere byakomeje kubigira ku isoko.
Nubwo ibyoherezwa mu mahanga byiyongereye cyane, ibitumizwa mu mahanga na byo byazamutseho 28.0%.
Ibi byatewe ahanini n’itumizwa ry’ibiribwa by’ibanze birimo amavuta yo guteka adatunganyije n’umuceri, hamwe n’ibikoresho by’ubwubatsi, ibikoresho byo kwa muganga ndetse n’iby’ikoranabuhanga.
Kubera iyo mpamvu, icyuho hagati y’ibyo u Rwanda rwohereza mu mahanga n’ibyo rutumizayo (trade deficit) cyiyongereyeho 13.8%, kigera kuri miliyoni $821.9 kivuye kuri miliyoni$ 722.3 yariho mu gihe nk’icyo mu mwaka wa 2025.
Muri rusange, nubwo ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bukomeje kwerekana imbaraga n’izamuka rikomeye, Banki Nkuru ivuga ko izakomeza gukurikirana ibyerekezo by’ubukungu n’ibiciro ku masoko kugira ngo irinde ko inflation ikomeza kuzamuka no kugira ingaruka ku mibereho y’abaturage.
