Isoko rya peteroli na gazi iyunguruye ku isi ryahungabanyijwe cyane kubera intambara iri mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati.
Ibiciro bya peteroli na gazi byazamutse cyane mu gihe Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika na Isiraheli bikomeje kugaba ibitero kuri Irani, na ho Irani igasubiza ibisasu bya misile n’indege zitagira abapilote mu bihugu byinshi byo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati.
Ibikorwa remezo bikomeye bitunganya ibyo bikoresho nkenerwa mu bwikorezi mpuzamahanga byibasiwe n’iyi ntambara.
Ikindi cyagize ingaruka zikomeye ni uko ubwato butwara peteroli bunyura mu muyoboro muto w’amazi witwa Strait of Hormuz busa nubwahagaze.
Uyu muyoboro unyuramo hafi 1/4 cya peteroli yose itwarwa n’ubwato ku isi, ndetse na 1/5 cya gazi iyunguruye yoherezwa ku isi, bayita Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).
Kubera ko ubwato bukomeje kudashobora kunyura muri uyu muyoboro, ibihugu bitunganya peteroli nka Saudi Arabia byatangiye kugabanya ingano ya peteroli bitunganya kubera ko ububiko bwo k’ubutaka no mu bwato bwamaze kuzura..
Nubwo ibiciro bya peteroli byagabanutse nyuma yo kurenga amadolari 100 ku kagunguru, iki kikaba igiciro kinini kuva mu mwaka wa 2022, biracyari hejuru ugereranyije na mbere y’uko intambara ya Irani itangira.
Niba ibiciro by’ingufu bikomeje kuzamuka, bishobora guteza izamuka rikomeye ry’ibiciro ku isoko no kugabanya umuvuduko w’ubukungu ku bihugu byinshi, ibintu bishobora gutuma habaho izamuka ry’ibiciro mu gihe ubukungu budakura.
Mu mugabane wa Asia aho bakenera cyane peteroli ituruka mu Kigobe cya Persian Gulf, za Guverinoma zatangiye gufata ingamba zo gufasha abaturage kugabanya amafaranga bakoreshaga kuri lisansi no kugabanya ikoreshwa ryayo.
Mbere byatekerezwaga ko ku isi hari peteroli nyinshi kurenza ikenewe, ariko ubu abantu batangiye guhangayikishwa no kuba ishobora kubura, igashira.
Umuyoboro wa Strait of Hormuz ni inzira ikomeye inyuramo peteroli nyinshi iva mu bihugu byo mu Kigobe cya Persian Gulf.
Mu mwaka ushize, hafi 90% ya peteroli yanyujijwe muri uwo muyoboro yagiye mu bihugu bya Asia.
Umujyanama mukuru mu gisirikare cya Irani yavugiye kuri televiziyo ya Leta ko ingabo za Irani zitazemera ko hari litilo imwe ya peteroli iva muri ako karere.
Irani yanibasiye ubwato butwara peteroli. Nubwo hari ubwishingizi bushobora kuboneka kuri ubwo bwato, ba nyirabwo n’abakozi bayakoramo bavuga ko kunyura muri uwo muyoboro ari ukwiteza ibyago bikomeye cyane.
Ibihugu nka Saudi Arabia na Leta ziyunze z’Abarabu bishobora kunyuza peteroli mu miyoboro yindi (pipelines) idaciye muri Hormuz.
Iraq na yo ifite umuyoboro uva mu karere ka Kurdistan ukagera ku cyambu cya Ceyhan muri Turukiya.
Ariko kubera ko ibikorwa remezo by’ingufu muri aka karere byugarijwe n’intambara, Iraq yahagaritse by’agateganyo kohereza peteroli inyujijwe muri uwo muyoboro.
Ibihugu nka Kuwait, Qatar na Bahrain nta yindi nzira bifite uretse kohereza peteroli binyuze muri Strait of Hormuz.
Impungenge z’ihungabana rikomeye ry’ingufu
Kubera impungenge z’uko ikibazo cya Hormuz gishobora guteza ikibazo gikomeye cy’ingufu ku isi, Perezida wa Amerika Donald Trump yavuze ko Amerika izatanga ubwishingizi ku bwato butwara peteroli bunyura mu Kigobe cya Persian Gulf, kandi ko nibiba ngombwa ingabo za Amerika zirwanira mu mazi zizabuherekeza.
Ariko ibisobanuro birambuye kuri iyi gahunda ntibiramenyekana neza, kandi abacuruzi ba peteroli bavuga ko bishobora gufata ibyumweru byinshi mbere y’uko ibintu bisubira mu buryo busanzwe.
Ibihugu bimwe na bimwe biri gutekereza uko byatangira gusohora peteroli mu bubiko bwabyo kuko bibona ko ibintu biri kugana ahabi.
Muri icyo gihe, ibihugu byo muri Asia byatangiye kugura peteroli nyinshi muri Amerika, bituma amafaranga yo gutwara peteroli iva muri Amerika azamuka cyane.
Abatunganya peteroli mu Buhinde na bo batangiye kongera kugura peteroli yo mu Burusiya, nubwo mbere bari baragabanyije kuyihagura kubera igitutu cya Amerika.
Ingaruka ku bindi bicuruzwa bikomoka kuri peteroli
N’ibikomoka kuri peteroli byatangiye kubura.
Uruganda runini cyane rutunganya peteroli rwa Aramco ruri i Ras Tanura muri Saudi Arabia rwahagaritse ibikorwa nyuma y’igitero cya drone cya Irani.
Byatumye ibiciro bya mazutu (diesel), lisansi (gasoline), lisansi y’indege (jet fuel) n’ibikoresho bikorerwamo pulasitike byose bizamuka.
Kuzamuka kw’ibiciro bya lisansi bishobora guteza igitutu ku butegetsi bwa Perezida Trump n’ishyaka rye mu matora ateganyijwe mu mpera z’uyu mwaka.
Ingaruka ku isoko rya gazi iyunguruye
Isoko rya gazi na ryo riri mu kaga ko guhura n’ihungabana rikomeye cyane kuva igihe Uburusiya bwateraga Ukraine mu mwaka wa 2022.
Ibiciro bya gazi iyunguruye mu Burayi byikubye hafi kabiri mu minsi mike nyuma y’uko iyi ntambara itangiye.
Akarere k’Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati ni isoko rikomeye ya gazi iyunguruye, cyane cyane kubera igihugu cya Qatar cya kabiri ku isi nyuma ya Amerika.
Ikigo cya QatarEnergy cyahagaritse ibikorwa by’uruganda runini cyane ruyungurura gazi ku isi ruri i Ras Laffan nyuma y’igitero cya drone cya Irani. Uru ruganda rutanga hafi 1/5 cya gazi iyunguruye ikenerwa ku isi hose.
Niba ibihugu byo muri Asia bidashobora kubona gazi iyunguruye bikeneye, iva muri ako Karere Irani iherereyemo, bituma n’ahandi ku isi ibiciro byayo bizamuka.
Uruhare rwa Irani ku isoko ry’ingufu ku isi
Nubwo Irani ifite ubutunzi bwinshi bwa peteroli, uruhare rwayo ku isoko mpuzamahanga rwagabanutse kubera ibihano mpuzamahanga, kubura ishoramari rituruka hanze n’ibikorwa remezo bishaje.
Irani ni igihugu cya kane muri OPEC mu gucukura peteroli, ariko itunganya gusa hafi miliyari 3 zayo ku munsi, bingana na 3% by’umusaruro w’isi yose bigaterwa n’uko yakomanyirijwe ku rwego mpuzamahanga.
Hafi 90% ya peteroli Irani yohereza hanze igurwa n’u Bushinwa, cyane cyane n’inganda zishobora kuyigura ku giciro gito kubera ibihano Teheran yafatiwe.
