Afurika yo munsi y’Ubutayu bwa Sahara yinjiye mu mwaka wa 2026 yungukira ku ntambwe zikomeye zari zimaze kugerwaho mu kugarura ituze mu by’ubukungu nyuma y’umwaka wa 2025 wagenze neza mu bukungu.
Ibikorwa by’ubukungu byihuse mu buryo bwagutse mu byiciro bitandukanye by’ibihugu, aho izamuka ry’ubukungu mu karere ryageraga hafi kuri 4.5 ku ijana—ari ryo ryihuse kurusha aylhandi mu myaka icumi ishize—byatewe n’ingamba nziza zafashwe, cyane cyane mu bihugu bimwe binini mu by’ubukungu.
Izamuka ry’ibiciro (inflation) ryaragabanutse kugeza mu mpera za 2025, bitewe n’igabanuka ry’ibiciro by’ibiribwa na peteroli ku isoko mpuzamahanga, kugabanya igitutu ku gipimo cy’ivunjisha, ndetse n’ingamba zikomeye z’ifaranga (monetary policy) zashyizweho mu bihugu byinshi.
Ikigega mpuzamahanga cy’imari kivuga ko imiterere y’ingengo y’imari ya za Leta yarushijeho kuba myiza, ishyigikiwe n’izamuka ry’ubukungu n’impinduka nziza mu gipimo cy’ivunjisha.
Ariko intambara yo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati yatumye icyerekezo cy’igihe kizaza gushidikanywaho.
Ibiciro bya peteroli, gaze, n’ifumbire, hamwe n’ibiciro byo kohereza ibicuruzwa (transport), byazamutse cyane.
Byongeye kandi, iyo ntambara yahungabanije ubucuruzi n’ibihugu byo mu kigobe (Gulf), igabanya umubare w’abakerarugendo, kandi ishobora no kugabanya amafaranga yoherezwa mu bihugu (remittances).
Abashoramari bagaragaje ubushake buke bwo gushora imari, bigira ingaruka ku buryo bwo kubona inguzanyo, mu gihe ibihugu byinshi bidafite ubushobozi buhagije bwo kwihanganira ibihombo.
IMF ivuga ko hiteganyijwe ko izamuka ry’ubukungu muri Afurika yo munsi y’Ubutayu bwa Sahara rizagera kuri 4.3 ku ijana mu 2026, riri munsi ho gato (0.3 ku ijana) ugereranyije n’ibyari byitezwe mbere y’intambara, kandi ibi bizatandukana cyane hagati y’ibihugu.
Ibihugu bitumiza peteroli hanze kandi bidafite umutungo kamere uhagije bizahura n’ihungabana mu bucuruzi n’izamuka ry’ikiguzi cyo kubaho, mu gihe ibihugu bicukura peteroli bizungukira ku kwiyongera kw’amafaranga yinjira mu byoherezwa hanze, ariko bikaguma mu kaga ko guhindagurika kw’isoko n’ingamba zishingiye ku bihe by’ubukungu.
Bateganyijwe ko izamuka ry’ibiciro rizagera kuri 5.0 ku ijana mu mpera za 2026 rivuye kuri 3.4 ku ijana mu mpera za 2025.
Ubukene, ibura ry’ibiribwa, n’ibindi bipimo by’imibereho myiza byari bisanzwe byarazahajwe n’ingaruka za COVID-19, bikomeje guhura n’imbogamizi nshya zituruka ku igabanuka ry’inkunga z’amahanga no kuzamuka kw’ibiciro by’ibiribwa.
Abakozi ba IMF bagereranya ko izamuka rya 20 ku ijana mu biciro by’ibiribwa ku rwego mpuzamahanga rishobora kuzatuma abantu barenga miliyoni 20 bagwa mu kibazo gikomeye cyo kubura ibiribwa muri aka Karere ka Afurika.
Ingaruka zishobora kuba nyinshi, bitewe n’ukutamenya neza uko ubukungu bw’isi buhagaze n’intege nke z’ubukungu bw’akarere.
Niba iyi ntambara ikomeje igihe kirekire, ibiciro bya peteroli, ifumbire n’ibiribwa byakomeza kuzamuka, bikaba byatera abashoramari guhunga isoko, bigatuma ibiciro by’inguzanyo byiyongera cyane, ndetse bikaba byahatira ibihugu bifite imyenda myinshi gufata ingamba zihuse kandi zikomeye.
Muri iyo mimerere, umusaruro w’ubukungu w’aka karere ushobora kugabanukaho 0.6 ku ijana, cyane cyane ku bihugu bitumiza peteroli, mu gihe izamuka ry’ibiciro ryiyongera ho 2.4 ku ijana mu 2026 ugereranyije n’ibyari byitezwe mbere y’intambara iri mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati.
IMF isaba ibihugu bya Afurika yo munsi y’Ubutayu bwa Sahara gukora politiki zibanda ku guhangana n’ingaruka z’ako kanya no kubaka ubushobozi bwo kwihanganira ibibazo mu gihe kirekire.
Mu gihe cya vuba, icy’ingenzi ni ugukomeza kugenzura neza izamuka ry’ibiciro no kurinda ko abatagira ubushobozi bwo kwishyura ibiciro baremererwa binyuze mu nkunga igenewe abo bakeneye cyane kandi ifite igihe ntarengwa.
Ibihugu bicukura peteroli bikwiye kongera ubushobozi bwo kwirinda ibihombo n’aho ibihugu bitumiza peteroli byo bigakora k’uburyo amafaranga ajya mu mibereho myiza n’iterambere, mu gihe byongera amafaranga y’imbere mu gihugu.
Bikwiye gucunga neza imikoreshereze y’ingengo y’imari, kandi bigakomeza kunoza imicungire y’imari ya Leta.
Ibihugu bigomba kwihutisha impinduka z’ingenzi mu bukungu kugira ngo bigere ku izamuka rirambye no gushora mu byiciro binyuranye by’ubukungu.
Ubufatanye bw’ibihugu bigize Afurika yo munsi y’Ubutayu bwa Sahara bushobora guteza imbere izamuka ry’ubukungu no kongera ubushobozi bwo guhangana n’ibihungabanya uruhererekane rw’ibicuruzwa mu gihe isi ihindagurika mu bya politiki n’ubukungu.
IMF kandi isanga kunoza amasoko y’imari yo mu gihugu bishobora gufasha kubona amafaranga menshi imbere mu gihugu, kandi bikajyanirana no gukoresha ikoranabuhanga ry’ubwenge buhangano (AI) mu kongera umusaruro muri ibyo byose.
Ibyo bizasaba kwagura uburyo bwo kubona amashanyarazi yizewe no gushora imari mu bikorwaremezo by’ikoranabuhanga, ubumenyi bw’abakozi, umutekano w’ikoranabuhanga, no gucunga neza amakuru.
