Mu by’ukuri, nta gihugu gitangira intambara gitekereza ko izamara imyaka n’imyaniko.
Ariko amateka agaragaza ko ba Perezida ba Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika bagiye binjira mu ntambara zamaraga igihe kirekire, kugeza ubwo Perezida wabaga ari ku butegetsi cyangwa uwamusimbuye yanzuraga ko amafaranga n’igitutu cya politiki bitakiri ibyo kwihanganirwa, agashaka uburyo bwo gutangaza ko hari icyo igihugu cyagezeho, maze ingabo zigataha.
Ku kibazo cya Iran, Perezida Donald Trump ashobora kuba na we yarinjiye muri uwo mutego.
Mu gihe yiyamamazaga, yasezeranyije Abanyamerika n’isi ko azarangiza intambara aho kuzitangira, kandi ko atazigera yinjira mu ntambara ndende, cyane cyane mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati.
Nyamara intambara yatangijwe na Isiraheli ifatanyije na Amerika nta kimenyetso igaragaza cy’uko iri hafi kurangira.
Amasezerano yari amaze igihe gito hagati ya Amerika na Iran, Trump yavuze ko “ayo masezerano yari yageze ku byo bari biyemeje byose”, yamaze gusenyuka.
Inzira y’inyanja ya Hormuz yongeye gufungwa, impande zombi zisubira kugabanaho ibitero.
Ibi byatumye umubano wa Amerika na Iran wongera guhinduka amakimbirane ahora asimburana hagati y’ibiganiro n’ibitero bya gisirikare.
Ibi bituma benshi bibaza niba iyi ari yo ishobora kuba indi ntambara ya Amerika izamara imyaka myinshi.
Igisirikare gikomeye ntigisimbura ingamba zisobanutse
Igitekerezo cy’intambara zidashira cyatangiye kwamamara nyuma y’ibitero byo ku wa 11 Nzeri 2001, igihe Amerika yatangizaga “intambara ku iterabwoba” (Global War on Terror), bikayijyana mu ntambara ndende muri Afghanistan no muri Iraq.
Izo ntambara zatangiye Amerika ikuraho ubutegetsi bw’abo yafataga nk’abanzi, ariko nyuma zihinduka intambara ndende zo guhangana n’inyeshyamba, zirangira nta ntsinzi isobanutse cyangwa zikarangira Amerika itsinzwe.
Lawrence Freedman, impuguke mu bijyanye n’intambara muri King’s College London, avuga ko abayobozi bafite ingabo zikomeye bakunda kugwa mu mutego wo kwizera ko intambara zizarwana zizazitsinda vuba.
Ati: “Batekereza ko bazatsinda mu gihe gito kandi nta ngaruka zikomeye zizabageraho.”
Ariko ashimangira ko n’igisirikare gikomeye kidahagije iyo nta ngamba za politiki n’iza dipolomasi zihamye zihari zo guhindura intsinzi yo ku rugamba umusaruro urambye.
Freedman avuga ko abayobozi nka Donald Trump muri Iran cyangwa Vladimir Putin muri Ukraine badaha agaciro imipaka y’imbaraga za gisirikare, bagashyiraho intego zishobora kugerwaho gusa nyuma y’intambara ndende cyane.
Amasomo Amerika yigeze kwiga
Intambara ya mbere yo mu Kigobe cya Persian (Gulf War) yabaye intsinzi kuko Perezida George H.W. Bush yari afite intego isobanutse kandi idakabije: gukura ingabo za Saddam Hussein muri Kuwait.
Ariko umuhungu we, George W. Bush, mu ntambara ya kabiri muri Iraq, yagerageje guhindura ubutegetsi n’imiterere y’igihugu, amaherezo bituma Iran irushaho kugira imbaraga muri ako karere.
No muri Afghanistan, Amerika yabanje gukura Abatalibani ku butegetsi, ariko nyuma igerageza kubaka igihugu bushya ariko biranga.
Amaherezo, Amerika imaze kunanirwa, Abatalibani bongeye gusubira ku butegetsi.
Ese Trump ashaka kurangiza amakimbirane amaze imyaka hafi 50?
Hari abavuga ko Trump yinjiriye muri iyi ntambara agamije kurangiza amakimbirane amaze imyaka 47 hagati ya Amerika na Iran, yatangiye nyuma y’ihirikwa ry’ubwami bwa Shah wa Iran mu 1979 no gufatwa bugwate kw’Abanyamerika barenga 60 muri Ambasade yabo i Tehran.
Aaron David Miller, impuguke muri Carnegie Endowment for International Peace yabwiye The New York Times ko Trump yaninjiye mu yindi ntambara ndende isanzwe hagati ya Isiraheli na Iran, ikomeje no kurwanywa binyuze mu mitwe Iran ishyigikira muri Libani, Palestine na Yemen.
Hari amahirwe Trump yari afite yo kuvuga ko Amerika yatsinze, maze agakurayo ingabo.
Ariko aho kubikora, agaragara nk’uwiyemeje gukomeza urugamba, n’ubwo nta nzira isobanutse y’intsinzi ihari.
Ikindi ni uko yasezeranyije ko Amerika izakomeza gutuma Hormuz iba ahantu nyabagendwa ku bw’ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga, mu gihe Iran ivuga ko itazarekura ububasha bwayo kuri iyo nzira.
Ibyo bishobora gusaba ko Amerika iguma mu bikorwa bya gisirikare igihe kirekire.
Ariko nanone Iran itandukanye na Iraq na Afghanistan
Nubwo bimeze bityo, intambara yo muri Iran ifite itandukaniro rikomeye n’izo muri Iraq na Afghanistan.
Muri izo ntambara zombi, Amerika yari ifite ibihumbi byinshi by’abasirikare bari ku butaka bw’ibyo bihugu imyaka myinshi.
Kuri Iran, ibikorwa byinshi byibanda ku bitero byo mu kirere, ku nyanja no ku ikoranabuhanga rya gisirikare, aho kohereza ingabo nyinshi ku butaka.
Ariko Iran ifite izindi mbaraga zikomeye: ishobora guteza ihungabana rikomeye ku bukungu bw’isi binyuze mu guhungabanya urujya n’uruza rw’ubwato bunyura muri Hormuz, inzira inyuramo igice kinini cya peteroli n’umwuka wa gaz byoherezwa ku isi. Iyi ni imwe mu mpamvu Tehran idashaka kurekura ububasha kuri iyo nzira.
Iyo mbaraga ni na yo yasobanuye impamvu Amerika yemeye agahenge k’intambara, nubwo nyuma katongeye kubahirizwa.
Ese iyi ntambara izarangira ryari?
Ali Vaez, uyobora ishami ryiga kuri Iran muri International Crisis Group, avuga ko amahoro nyayo akiri kure.
Asobanura ko impande zombi zananiriwe no kubahiriza amasezerano y’agateganyo yari gushyira ku ruhande ibibazo bikomeye, nk’ahazaza h’ikorwa rya porogaramu ya kirimbuzi ya Iran.
Yongeraho ko niba n’ayo masezerano y’ibanze adashobora kubahirizwa, bishobora gukuraho inzitizi ya nyuma yari isigaye hagati y’amakimbirane ya hato na hato n’intambara ishobora kumara imyaka myinshi cyane.
‘Intambara idashira’ ni ijambo rikunze gukoreshwa mu gusobanura intambara igihugu gikomeza kurwana imyaka myinshi nta ntsinzi isobanutse cyangwa iherezo rigaragara.
Urugero ruzwi ni intambara Amerika yarwanye muri Afghanistan (2001–2021) no muri Iraq (guhera mu 2003), zamaze imyaka myinshi zitwara amafaranga menshi n’ubuzima bw’abasirikare n’abasivili.
Aha rero haribazwa niba amakimbirane mashya hagati ya Amerika na Iran ashobora na yo kugera kuri urwo rwego.
