Banki nkuru y’u Rwanda ivuga ko kugeza ubu bigaragara ko intambara ya Ukraine n’u Burusiya izakomeza gutuma ibiciro bizamuka. Icyakora ngo hari icyizere ko mu mwaka utaha(hasigaye amezi arindwi) bishobora kuzatangira kumanuka.
Ni ngombwa kuzirikana ko n’ubwo hari icyizere ko intambara ya Ukraine n’u Burusiya yazagenza amaguru macye, ibintu bigasubira ku murongo, kugeza ubu ntawamenya icyo ejo hahishe.
Biragoye kumenya niba mu by’ukuri intambara ya Ukraine n’u Burusiya izarangira vuba cyane cyane ko hari ibihugu bituranye na Ukraine nka Suwede na Finland biherutse gusinyana amasezerano y’ubufatanye mu bwa gisirikare n’u Bwongereza, igihugu cy’inshuti n’Amerika nayo ikaba idacana uwaka n’u Burusiya bwa Putin
Mu kiganiro Banki nkuru y’u Rwanda yahaye abanyamakuru, abayobozi bayo bavuze ko kuzamuka kw’ibiciro ku isoko ry’u Rwanda no ku isi hose muri rusange rizakomeza kugaragara no mu mezi ari imbere.
Impamvu ngo ziratandukanye ariko harimo n’iy’ibiciro by’ubwikorezi, ibikomoka kuri peteroli n’intambara y’u Burusiya na Ukraine.
Ku rundi ruhande ariko Guverineri wa Banki nkuru y’u Rwanda John Rwangombwa avuga ko hari icyizere ko mu mwaka utaha ibiciro ‘bishobora kuzatangira kumanuka’ bigatanga agahenge.
Ibiciro ku isoko ry’u Rwanda byarazamutse k’uburyo haba mu cyaro cyangwa mu mijyi abaturage batabaza.
Ikigo cy’Igihugu cy’Ibarurishamibare giherutse gutangaza ko ibiciro mu Rwanda mu kwezi gushize (Mata, 2022), byazamutse cyane ugereranije n’amezi atatu ya mbere y’umwaka wa 2022.
Byaranazamutse kandi ugereranyije n’uko byari bimeze mu kwezi nk’uku( Mata) mu mwaka ushize(2021).
Kuba ibiciro byariyongereye ku kigero cya 10% mu kwezi kumwe( Mata, 2022) ntibisanzwe.
Imibare y’iki kigo yerekana ko ibiciro mu mijyi yo mu Rwanda byiyongereyeho 9,9% mu kwezi kwa Mata 2022, ugereranyije na Mata 2021, ibiciro muri Werurwe 2022 byari byiyongereyeho 7,5%.
Impamvu iki kigo kigaragaza ni uko ngo muri Mata 2022, ibiciro byiyongereye bitewe ahanini n’ibiciro by’ibiribwa n’ibinyobwa bidasembuye byiyongereyeho 15,7%, ibiciro by’inzu, amazi, amashanyarazi, gazi n’ibindi bicanwa byiyongereyeho 8,8%, ibiciro by’ibijyanye n’ubwikorezi byiyongeraho 7% n’ibiciro by’amacumbi n’amafunguro byiyongereyeho 15%.
Iyo ugereranyije Mata 2022 na Mata 2021, usanga ibiciro by’ibintu bitarimo ibiribwa n’ibikomoka ku ngufu byariyongereyeho 9,1%.
Ugereranyije Mata 2022 na Werurwe 2022, ibiciro byiyongereyeho 2,4%, iri zamuka ahanini ryatewe n’ibiciro by’ibiribwa n’ibinyobwa bidasembuye byiyongereyeho 5,5% n’ibiciro by’ibijyanye n’ubwikorezi byiyongereyeho 3,3%.
Imibare y’iki kigo kandi yerekana ko muri Mata 2022, ibiciro mu byaro byiyongereyeho 11% ugereranyije na Mata 2021.
Ibiciro muri Werurwe 2022 byari byiyongereyeho 4,3%, bimwe mu bigaragazwa na NISR nk’impamvu zatumye ibiciro byiyongera muri Werurwe, ni ibiciro by’ibiribwa n’ibinyobwa bidasembuye byiyongereyeho 12,1%, ibiciro by’inzu, amazi, amashanyarazi, gazi n’ibindi bicanwa byiyongereyeho 16,8%, ibiciro by’ibikoresho byo mu nzu, isuku no gusana byiyongereyeho 18,8% n’ibiciro by’amacumbi n’amafunguro byiyongereyeho 11,3%.
Iyo ugereranyije Mata 2022 na Werurwe 2022 ubona ko ibiciro byiyongereye ho 4,7%.
Ni izamuka ryatewe ahanini n’ibiciro by’ibiribwa n’ibinyobwa bidasembuye byiyongereyeho 9,1%.
Mu buryo bukomatanyije, ikigo cy’igihugu cy’ibarurishamibare, NISR, kigaragaza ko muri Mata 2022 ibiciro mu Rwanda byiyongereyeho 10,5% ugereranyije na Mata 2021.
Muri Werurwe 2022 ibiciro byari byiyongereyeho 5,6%, bimwe mu byatumye ibiciro byiyongera muri Mata 2022 ni uko ni ibiciro by’ibiribwa n’ibinyobwa bidasembuye byiyongereyeho 13,2%, ibiciro by’inzu, amazi, amashanyarazi, gazi n’ibindi bicanwa byiyongereyeho 13,1% n’ibiciro by’amacumbi n’amafunguro byiyongereyeho 13,4%.
Iyo ugereranyije Mata 2022 na Werurwe 2022 ibiciro byiyongereyeho 3,7%, iri zamuka ahanini rikaba ryaratewe n’ibiciro by’ibiribwa n’ibinyobwa bidasembuye byiyongereyeho 8% n’ibiciro by’ibijyanye n’ubwikorezi byiyongereyeho 2,6%.
Minisitiri W’Ubucuruzi Ngo Hari Abazamuye Ibiciro Ku Bwende Bwabo
Muri Werurwe, 2022 ubwo yagiraga icyo abazwa ku izamuka ry’ibiciro ku bicuruzwa bitandukanye harimo n’igiciro cy’isukari, Minisitiri w’ubucuruzi n’inganda Béatha Habyarimana yavuze ko ku byerekeye isukari, impamvu ari uko igera kuri 90% itumizwa hanze.
Ikindi ngo ni uko hari abacuruzi bazamuye igiciro cy’isukari ku bushake bwabo.
U Rwanda rukora 10% by’isukari abaturuye bakoresha indi ikava mu bihugu nka Malawi na Zimbabwe kandi ngo muri iki gihe inganda zikora isukari muri biriya bihugu ziri gusanwa.
Ku byerekeye izamuka ry’igiciro cy’ifarini(ikomoka ku ngano) Minisitiri Habyarimana yavuze ko intambara hagati ya Ukraine n’u Burusiya yatumye ziriya mpeke zibura kuko u Burusiya ni ubwa mbere ku isi bweza bukanagurisha ingano mu mahanga mu gihe Ukraine ari iya gatanu .
Ati: “ Ibi bivuze ko hari ibihugu runaka bizagira ingaruka ku bijyanye n’ingano.”
Kuri iki kibazo, Minisitiri Habyarimana yavuze ko u Rwanda rwasanze rutaheranwa n’iki kibazo ngo rubure ingano ku rwego rukomeye, ahubwo rwahise rutekereza uburyo rwajya ruzivana no muri Turikiya.
Ngo n’ubundi rwari rusanzwe ruzihavana ariko ngo rugomba kubyongeramo imbaraga.
Icyo gihe Minisitiri w’ubucuruzi n’inganda yavuze ko u Rwanda rwasanze ari ngombwa korohereza zimwe mu nganda zo mu Rwanda kubona aho zitumiza amamesa kugira ngo ahindurwemo ubuto.
Ubusanzwe ubuto ni amamesa aba yatunganyijwe, akagirwa meza.
Hari inganda zo mu Rwanda zoroherejwe kubona amamesa aturuka muri Repubulika ya Demukarasi ya Congo, DRC.
Muri Werurwe, 2022 Minisitiri Habyarimana yavugaga ko ibintu bitari byageze ku rwego rubi cyane k’uburyo abantu bari butangire kugereranya ubukungu bw’u Rwanda n’ibihugu bituranye narwo kuko ngo n’ibiciro bitazamutse ku kigero kimwe, ngo ifaranga rite agaciro ku rwego rungana.
Muri iki gihe ariko birashoboka cyane ko Minisitiri Béatha Habyarimana yavuga izindi ngingo kuko mu kwezi kumwe ni ukuvuga Mata, ibiciro byazamutse ku kigero cya 10%.
Ni ibiciro byazamutse kuri ruriya rwego mu gihe kitangana n’ukwezi kuzuye nyuma y’uko Minisitiri Habyarimana ahaye ikiganiro RBA cyagarutse kuri kiriya kibazo.
Icyo gihe kandi Minisitiri Béatha Habyarimana yanenze bamwe mu bacuruzi babaye ba ‘rusahuriramunduru’, bumvise ikibazo cyo muri Ukraine kizamutse nabo bakaboneraho kuzamura ibiciro.
Yavuze ko kuzamura igiciro cya dodo ngo ni uko muri Ukraine hari intambara, ngo ni ibintu bidasobanutse!
Ati: “ Kuzamura igiciro cya dodo mu gihe cy’imvura ukavuga ko bifitanye isano na Ukraine n’u Burusiya sibyo rwose. Kuzamura igiciro cya SORWATOM kandi tugira imyero itatu y’inyanya mu mwaka, ugasanga rero hari ababizamura bashingiye gusa ku ngingo y’uko hari ibindi byahenze nawe akabigenza atyo.”
Ku byerekeye isukari, ngo hari abacuruzi bayiranguye aho kuyigurisha baba bayibitse bituma iri ku isoko ibura hanyuma bo barayihenda.
Minisitiri Bèatha Habyarimana avuga ko muri iki gihe u Rwanda ruri gukora uko rushoboye kugira ngo ibiciro bigabanuke.
Mu Rwanda ibiciro byazamutse cyane ni iby’isukari, isabune n’amavuta yo gutekesha.
Ubusanzwe ibikorwamo isabune ni ibiba byasagutse mu byakozwemo amavuta bityo iyo igiciro cya kimwe kizamutse n’ikindi kizamura igiciro.
Mu gihe gito cyabanjirije ikiganiro Minisitiri w’ubucuruzi n’inganda yagejeje kuri RBA,Banki nkuru y’u Rwanda yari yatangaje ko yazamuye igipimo cy’inyungu fatizo yayo ho 0.5 maze igera kuri 5%, hagamijwe gukumira izamuka ry’ibiciro rikomeje kugaragara ku isoko muri ibi bihe.
Iyi nyungu yari isanzwe kuri 4.5 ku ijana kuva muri Mata 2020.
Kuva icyo gihe nibwo BNR yatangaje imyanzuro y’Inama ngarukagihembwe ya Komite ishinzwe Politiki y’Ifaranga (MPC) na Komite ishinzwe ubutajegajega bwa serivisi z’imari (FSC).
Nibwo Guverineri wa BNR John Rwangombwa yavuze ko ku rwego mpuzamahanga ubukenerwe rw’ibicuruzwa byifashishwa mu nganda bwazamutse cyane kandi bijyana n’ibiciro byabyo, nyuma y’imanuka ryatewe n’ingaruka z’icyorezo cya COVID-19 mu mwaka wa 2020.
Urugero nko mu bijyanye n’ingufu, ibiciro by’ibikomoka kuri peteroli (crude) byazamutse 79.4% mu gihembwe cya nyuma cya 2021 na 67.4% mu mwaka wose, bigira ingaruka ku itumizwa hanze ry’ibikomoka kuri peteroli.
Gusa ngo ibitajyanye n’ingufu nk’amabuye y’agaciro n’ibikomoka ku buhinzi, izamuka ryabyo ryagize ingaruka nziza ku bukungu kuko ibyo u Rwanda rwohereza mu mahanga nabyo byiyongereye.
Rwangombwa yavuze ko ibiciro ku masoko byakomeje guhagarara neza mu mwaka ushize(2021) bizamukaho 1.4% mu gihembwe ya kane, muri rusange mu 2021 bizamukaho 0.8%.
Ariko ibintu bisa n’ibyahindutse.
Yakomeje ati “Kugeza ubu, muri Mutarama izamuka ry’ibiciro ku isoko ryari 4.3%, kandi ibipimo byacu bitwereka ko muri uyu mwaka bizaba biri hejuru y’intego ntarengwa ya 5%, ariko bikaba munsi ya 8%, ni ukuvuga nibura impuzandengo ya 7.5% ku mwaka wa 2022.”
Yakomeje avuga ko byitezwe ko ibiciro by’ibiribwa n’iby’ibikomoka ku ngufu bizakomeza kuzamuka muri uyu mwaka.
Ati “Kubera ko iteganya ryacu ryagaragaje ko bishobora kurenga umubare uri hejuru wa 8% kugeza mu mpera z’uyu mwaka, komite ishinzwe Politiki y’Ifaranga yafashe icyemezo cyo kuzamura igipimo fatizo cy’inyungu ya Banki Nkuru ho 0.5% kikagera kuri 5.0 %, mu gukumira igitutu cy’izamuka ry’ibiciro turimo kubona.”
Yavuze ko izamuka ry’ibiciro rishobora guterwa n’ubukungu bwifashe neza, ariko bishobora no kugira izindi ngaruka.
Bibarwa ko iyo inyungu fatizo ya Banki Nkuru iri hasi, banki z’ubucuruzi zibonayo amafaranga zicuruza ku nyungu iringaniye, amafaranga atangwa mu baturage akaba menshi. Kugabanya inyungu fatizo biba bishishikariza amabanki kugabanya inyungu ku nguzanyo.
Ni mu gihe kuzamura inyungu fatizo yayo bigabanya uburyo amafaranga atangwa mu baturage no mu bukungu bw’igihugu muri rusange, ibiciro bigasubira ku murongo.
Rwangombwa yagize ati “Iyo ugize umuvuduko w’ibiciro uri hejuru cyane, ibyo wakoze byose byitwa ngo wateye imbere bisa n’aho bihindutse ubusa, kuko amafaranga umuntu abona, ubushobozi aba afite bwo kugura ibyo akeneye buba buri hasi cyane.”
“Kuba rero twafashe icyemezo cyo kuzamura urwunguko rwa banki nkuru y’igihugu, ni inzira imwe cyangwa igikoresho kimwe gifasha mu gukumira kuzamuka cyane kw’ibiciro ku masoko, kugira ngo bitazagira ya ngaruka mbi ku bukungu cyangwa no ku bushobozi bw’abantu bwo guhaha ibyo bakeneye.”
Yavuze ko nubwo inyugu fatizo yageze kuri 5% nta ngaruka bizagira ku mabanki, kubera ko amafaranga atangamo inguzanyo atari ava muri BNR, ahubwo ni ava mu bakiliya bayo.
Yakomeje ati “Nubwo twazamuye ariko 5% iracyari ku rwego rwo hasi, rukomeza gushyigikira ko banki zitanga inguzanyo ku bikorera.”
Uretse ibiciro ku isoko, BNR ivuga ko ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ryatakaje agaciro ku gipimo kiri hasi y’icyari cyitezwe, kubera ukwitwara neza kw’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga.
Rwangombwa yakomeje ati “Bivuze ko amafaranga y’amanyahanga twinjije mu gihugu yari menshi, bityo bigabanya igitutu ku ifaranga ry’u Rwanda, ritakaza agaciro 3.8 ku ijana mu 2021 (rivuye kuri 5.4 ku ijana mu Ukuboza 2020).”
Byitezwe ko bizakomeza gutya muri uyu mwaka, ku buryo bizaba biri hafi ya 5 ku ijana mu 2022.
BNR ivuga ko hari icyizere ko ubukungu buzakomeza kwifata neza muri uyu mwaka, aho buzazamuka nibura kuri 7.2 ku ijana.
Mu gihembwe cya kane cy’umwaka ushize ubukungu bwazamutse kuri 13.4 ku ijana na 10.3% mu gihembwe cya gatatu, ku buryo hari icyizere ko izamuka rya 10.2 ku ijana ryateganywaga mu mwaka wa 2021 rizagerwaho.
Ubu haracyakusanywa imibare ya nyuma izatangazwa muri Werurwe.
Rwangombwa yakomeje ati: “Imibare dufite ni iteganya izamuka rya 7.2 ku ijana mu 2022, hashingiwe kuri gahunda yo kuzahura ubukungu na gahunda yo guteza imbere ibikorerwa mu nganda n’ubwubatsi, hamwe no gukomeza gufungura k’urwego rwa serivisi. Muzi ko noneho tugiye kwakira CHOGM muri uyu mwaka, ni ikigaragaza ko urwego rw’ubukerarugendo rurimo gufunguka kandi twiteze ko ruzakomeza.”
Gusa yavuze ko hari impungenge ko ibintu bishobora no guhinduka, kubera ko icyorezo cya COVID-19 bitaratangazwa cyo cyarangiye, bityo cyazamuka igihe icyo aricyo cyose.
