Guverineri wa Banki Nkuru y’u Rwanda Soraya Hakuziyaremye Munyana avuga ko n’ubwo ibipimo bigaragaza ko urwego rw’Imari rwahagaze neza mu mezi atandatu ashize, ibiciro ku masoko byakomeje kuba ikibazo.
Yabivugiye mu nama yahuje abafite aho bahuriye na politiki y’ifaranga mu kiganiro kigaragaza uko uru rwego rwari ruhagaze mu mezi atandatu ashize.
Soraya Hakuziyaremye avuga ko politiki y’ifaranga yageze kuri byinshi byo kwishimira ariko ko ibibazo byo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati birimo intambara byabangamiye byinshi byari buzamure ubudahangarwa bw’imari y’u Rwanda.
Ati: “ …Turi mu gihe isi ikomeje kurangwa no guhindagurika gukomeye. Hari amakimbirane ya geopolitiki, izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa isi ikenera n’imihindagurikire ikomeye ku masoko y’imari. Ibi byose bikomeje kugira ingaruka ku izamuka ry’ibiciro, ku miterere y’imari no ku cyerekezo cy’ubukungu ku isi.”
U Rwanda na rwo rwagezweho n’izo ngaruka nk’uko Guverineri wa Banki Nkuru y’u Rwanda abyemeza.
Avuga ko ihungabana ry’ubukungu ku rwego mpuzamahanga ndetse n’ibibazo mu ruhererekane rw’ibicuruzwa bituma iteganyabukungu ritazamuka ku rwego Banki nkuru ziba zarateganyije.
Ibyo byose kandi ngo ntibyatumye ubukungu bw’u Rwanda buhungabana cyane.
Banki Nkuru y’u Rwanda yemeza ko ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ryakomeje gutekana bitewe ahanini n’imikorere myiza, kuzamura ibyoherezwa mu mahanga, ishoramari rituruka mu mahanga n’amafaranga yoherezwa mu Rwanda n’Abanyarwanda baba hanze.
Imikorere y’ubukungu bw’u Rwanda
Mu gice cya mbere cya 2026, ibyoherezwa mu mahanga byazamutseho 52% mu mezi atandatu ya mbere y’umwaka, bitewe n’ingamba zo kongera ibyoherezwa mu mahanga no gushyira mu bikorwa politiki y’inganda.
Ku rundi ruhande, ibitumizwa mu mahanga byazamutseho hafi 19%.
Imikorere myiza y’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga yafashije gutuma icyuho kiri hagati y’ibitumizwa n’ibyoherezwa yo kidakomeza kwaguka cyane, aho cyazamutseho hafi 1.1%.
Uretse ibyo, imigendereke myiza y’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga, amafaranga yoherezwa mu Rwanda n’Abanyarwanda baba mu mahanga n’ishoramari rituruka hanze byafashije mu kongera amadovize y’u Rwanda, ubu rukaba rufite ubushobozi bwo gutumiza ibicuruzwa mu gihe kingana n’amezi 4.1.
Ibi byagize uruhare mu gutuma ifaranga ry’u Rwanda rihagarara neza kuko iyo igihugu gifite ubwizigame bw’amadovize bituma ifaranga ryacyo rihagarara neza.
Mu mezi atandatu ya mbere ya 2026, ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ryatakaje agaciro kari munsi ya 1% ugereranyije n’idolari rya Amerika.
Ibi bitandukanye cyane n’igabanuka ry’agaciro ryagaragaye mu myaka itanu ishize, cyane cyane mu 2023, ubwo mu mezi atandatu ya mbere y’uwo mwaka ryari ryageze kuri 8.7%.
Uku gutekana kw’ifaranga ry’u Rwanda, Banki nkuru ivuga ko guterwa n’imikorere myiza y’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga, ishoramari rituruka mu mahanga  n’ivugururwa ryakozwe ku isoko ry’ivunjisha kuva mu 2025.
 Ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bwakomeje gukura
Guverineri wa Banki nkuru y’u Rwanda avuga ko mu gice cya mbere cya 2026, ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bwakomeje gukura kuko muri icyo gihe umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu wazamutseho 9.7%.
Uku kuzamuka kw’ubukungu kwatewe ahanini n’uko inganda zazamuye umusaruro, hakurikiraho urwego rwa serivisi, mu gihe ubuhinzi na bwo bwazamutseho 5.9%.
Imibare ya Banki nkuru y’u Rwanda igaragaza ko ubukungu buzakomeza kuzamuka mu gice cya kabiri cya 2026, aho izamuka ry’umusaruro mbumbe ku mwaka wose riteganyijwe kugera kuri 7.8%.
Ubukungu bw’isi
Ku byerekeye ubukungu bw’isi, abakora imibare bavuga ko buteganyijwe gukura ku kigero cya 3% mu 2026, buvuye kuri 3.5% mu 2025.
Biteganyijwe ko mu 2027 ubukungu buzongera kuzahuka.
Muri Afurika yo Munsi y’Ubutayu bwa Sahara, ubukungu buzakura ku kigero cya 4.3% mu 2026, mbere yo kuzamuka bukagera kuri 4.5% mu 2027.
Uku gutinda kw’ubukungu muri aka karere guterwa ahanini n’izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga, cyane cyane peteroli, gaze n’ifumbire.
Izamuka ry’ibiciro ku isi kandi riteganyijwe kugera ku mpuzandengo ya 4.7% mu 2026, bitewe ahanini n’ibiciro byo hejuru by’ingufu n’ibiribwa, mbere y’uko rigabanuka rikagera kuri 3.9% mu 2027.
Imihindagurikire y’ibiciro by’ingufu n’ibiribwa, ndetse no gukomera kw’amafaranga y’ibihugu bimwe na bimwe nabyo byakomeje kugira uruhare mu miterere y’izamuka ry’ibiciro.
Ibi kandi bitandukanye n’ibibera mu gihugu imbere bitewe n’uko ihindagurika ry’ivunjisha rigira ingaruka ku biciro ndetse n’ibindi bibazo byihariye bya buri gihugu.
Ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa fatizo na byo biteganyijwe kuzazamuka, cyane cyane bitewe n’intambara yo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati ndetse n’ihagarara ry’imigendere y’ubwikorezi mu Nyanja Itukura n’ahazengurutse Inzira ya Hormuz.
Umuyobozi muri Banki nkuru y’u Rwanda ushinzwe politiki y’ifaranga Prof Kasai Ndahiriwe avuga ko u Rwanda rufite icyizere ko niyo intambara ya Iran na Amerika yatinda, u Rwanda rutazabura aho rukura ibikomoka kuri petelori.
Atanga urugero rw’uko no mu gihe intambara yatangiraga ingano zikabura, igihugu cyashatse ahandi cyazikura, zo hamwe n’ifumbire.
Ati: “ Uko ibintu bimara igihe, ni ko abantu bashaka uko bakemura ibibazo bigendanye nabyo.”
Ku bijyanye n’ibiciro by’ingufu, birimo peteroli, gaze n’amakara, biteganyijwe ko bizazamuka cyane mu 2026, ku kigero kigera hafi kuri 24%, mbere yo kugabanukaho 17.3% mu 2027.
By’umwihariko, ibiciro bya peteroli byarenze $100 ku kagunguru, bitewe n’umutekano muke mu karere umuhora wa Hormuz uherereyemo.
Guverineri wa Banki nkuru y’u Rwanda Soraya Hakuziyaremye Munyana avuga ko muri rusange urwego rw’imari rw’u Rwanda ruhagaze neza, ariko ko ikibazo kitaranoga ari icy’izamuka ry’ibiciro ku isoko riterwa na byinshi.
