AMATEKA ni urukurikirane rw’ibintu bifite aho bihuriye mu buryo runaka. Mu Bugereki bwa kera cyane, hari imijyi ibiri yahiganwaga ubutwari, umwe ukize ku mafaranga n’ubwigenge, undi wo ufite imbaraga za gisirikare, igahora irebana ay’ingwe.
Kera kabaye, yaje kurwana intambara umuhanga mu mateka w’Umugereki akaba n’umusirikare witwaga Thucydides yanditse mu gitabo yise THE HISTORY OF THE PELOPONNESIAN WAR.
Abize amateka y’ubwami bw’ibihangange bwategetse isi bazi izi ntambara.
Mu kubihuza n’uko umubano wa Amerika n’u Bushinwa umeze muri iki gihe ndetse, abahanga mu mateka bavuga ko hatabayemo kwitonda no kubara neza wavamo intambara yeruye.
Bababishingira ku isesengura ry’ibyo Perezida Xi Jinping aherutse kugarukaho ubwo yari yasuwe na mugenzi we wa Amerika.
Xi Jinping yaburiye Donald Trump ko ashobora kugwa mu mutego wiswe ‘Umutego wa Thucydides.”
Uyu mutego witiriwe iyo ntiti y’Umugereki wa kera mbere ya Yezu Kristu wavugaga ko kugira ngo intambara hagati ya Athènes na Sparte ishoboke, byatutumbye bishingiye k’uguhiganwa ubutwari, umujyi umwe ukumva ko undi utagira icyo uwurusha.
Xi yavuze ko mu isi ya none, ibintu biri ku rundi rwego aho iby’uko iyobowe n’uruhande rumwe rwica rugakiza, byarangiye kera.
Yasaga nicira amarenga Amerika ko ikwiye koga magazi kuko amazi atakiri ya yandi.
Ati: “ Isi y’ubu iri mu gihe cyihariye itigeze ibamo mbere.”
Yunzemo arabaza ati: “Ese Ubushinwa na Amerika bishobora kurenga icyo bita ‘Umutego wa Thucydides’ maze bigashyiraho uburyo bushya bw’imibanire hagati y’ibihugu bikomeye?”
Muri cya gitabo cya Thucydides, hari aho yanditse ati: “Kwiyongera kw’imbaraga za Athènes, ndetse n’ubwoba ibyo byateye Sparte, byatumye kwirinda intambara bigorana.”
Nubwo impaka ku busobanuro nyakuri bw’ayo magambo zakomeje, ubutumwa bw’ingenzi bwakomeje kumvikana: iyo igihugu kiri kuzamuka gitangiye guhungabanya ikindi gisanzwe gikomeye, kuvuka kw’amakimbirane kuriyongera.
Iki gitekerezo cyaje kwamamara cyane mu ntangiriro z’umwaka wa 2010 binyuze ku munyapolitiki n’umushakashatsi w’Umunyamerika Graham Allison, wise iriya mvuga ya Thucydides “Umutego wa Thucydides.”
Ubihuje n’uko ibintu bimeze muri iki gihe, wavuga ko Ubushinwa bugereranywa na Athènes naho Amerika ikagereranywa na Sparte.
Mu mateka y’Ubugereki bwa kera, abayobozi ba Sparte bagiriye ishyari Athènes rishingiye ku bwoba bituma bayitangizaho intambara.
Allison yanditse mu kinyamakuru Financial Times mu mwaka wa 2012 ati: “Ikibazo gikomeye kizagena imiterere y’isi mu myaka iri imbere ni iki: Ese Ubushinwa na Amerika bishobora kubana byirinda uriya mutego wa Thucydides?”
Yasobanuye iki gitekerezo mu gitabo cye cyo mu 2017 cyitwa Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, aho yavuze ko ibi bihugu byombi “biri mu nzira ishobora kubigeza ku ntambara, keretse gusa impande zombi zifashe ibyemezo bikomeye kandi bigoye kugira ngo zibyirinde iyo ntambara”.
Allison yagaragaje ingero 16 mu mateka aho ibihugu byari biri kuzamuka byahanganye n’ibyari bisanzwe bikomeye, maze 12 muri ayo makimbirane arangira habaye intambara.
Kuba Xi yarakomoje kuri uwo “mutego wa Thucydides” ni ikintu gikomeye ku basesengura politiki kuko abikoze mu gihe ubushyamirane hagati y’ibi bihugu by’ibihangange bushobora gukaza umurego ku ngingo zirimo ubucuruzi, ubwenge buhangano (AI) ndetse na Taiwan.
‘Si ibintu bidashobora kwirindwa’
Si ubwa mbere Xi agarutse kuri uyu mutego.
Kuva iri jambo ryatangira gukoreshwa muri iki gihe, Perezida w’Ubushinwa yarikoresheje inshuro nyinshi asobanura uburyo bwo kuyobora umubano hagati y’igihugu cye na Amerika.
Mu mwaka wa 2013, Xi Jinping yabwiye abayobozi bakomeye ku rwego rw’isi ati: “Dukeneye gukorera hamwe kugira ngo twirinde umutego wa Thucydides, ari wo makimbirane ashobora gusenya ibihugu biri kuzamuka n’ibisanzwe bikomeye, cyangwa hagati y’ibihugu bibiri bisanzwe bifite imbaraga.”
Mu ijambo yavugiye i Seattle mu 2015 imbere y’uwahoze ari Umunyamabanga wa Leta wa Amerika Henry Kissinger n’izindi ntumwa zikomeye, Xi yavuze ko politiki y’ububanyi n’amahanga y’Ubushinwa ishyira imbere “kumvikana ” na Amerika, kandi ko Beijing yifuza “ubwumvikane n’icyizere, aho kuba guhangana no kwishishanya.”
Muri iryo jambo, Xi yashimangiye ko kugabanya ubwoba n’imyumvire ibogamye ari ingenzi, avuga ko nta “bintu bidashobora kwirindwa” harimo n’intambara.
Ati: “Iyo ibihugu bikomeye bikomeje gukora amakosa yo kubura ubushishozi mu ngamba zabyo, ni byo bishobora kubigusha muri uwo mutego.”
Mu nama yagiranye n’uwari Umuyobozi wa Sena ya Amerika ku ruhande rw’Abademokarate, Chuck Schumer, mu Bushinwa mu 2023, Xi yongeye gushimangira — nk’uko byatangajwe n’itangazamakuru rya Leta y’Ubushinwa — ko “umutego wa Thucydides atari ikintu kitakwirindwa,” kandi ko “isi ari nini bihagije ku buryo yakwakirwamo iterambere n’ubukire busesuye by’Ubushinwa na Amerika.”
Mu nama yagiranye na Joe Biden mu 2024 i Lima muri Peru, Xi yongeye kuvuga ko “umutego wa Thucydides atari amateka adashobora guhinduka,” mbere yo kuburira ko “intambara y’Ubutita nshya idakwiye kubaho kandi ko ntawayitsinda , bityo ko ibyiza ari ukwirinda ibintu byayiganishaho.
Byasubiwemo n’abadipolomate b’Abashinwa
Abadipolomate b’Ubushinwa bakomeje gukoresha iri jambo bavuga ku mubano wa Amerika n’Ubushinwa.
Mu mwaka wa 2017, uwahoze ari Ambasaderi w’Ubushinwa muri Amerika Cui Tiankai yavuze ko “Umutego wa Thucydides” ari kimwe mu bibazo by’ingenzi byagombaga gusubizwa kugira ngo hamenyekane ejo hazaza h’umubano wa Amerika n’Ubushinwa ndetse n’uw’isi muri rusange.
Yarabajije ati: “Ni ubuhe bwoko bw’umubano twakubakira hamwe, mu nyungu z’ibihugu byombi ndetse n’isi yose? Ese ‘Umutego wa Thucydides’ urakomeye ku buryo Ubushinwa na Amerika byagenewe kujya mu ntambara? Ese ibi bihugu byombi bishobora gufungura inzira nshya mu mubano mpuzamahanga aho ibihugu, cyane cyane ibikomeye, byakorana mu nyungu za bose aho guhatana kugira ngo kimwe cyunguke ikindi gihombe?”
Mu 2021, uwamusimbuye Qin Gang yavuze ko ibihugu byombi bigomba “gushakira hamwe uburyo bwo kubana mu mahoro.”
Naho intumwa nshya y’Ubushinwa muri Amerika, Xie Feng, mu mwaka wa 2024 yavuze ko umuco w’Ubushinwa werekana uburyo bwo kwirinda uwo mutego.
Mu mvugo ya dipolomasi yagize ati: “ “Ubushinwa si Athènes kandi si na Sparte.”
Uko Amerika ibibona
Si Ubushinwa gusa bukoresha amagambo ya Thucydides. Mu gihe cya manda ya mbere ya Trump, uwari umujyanama we mu by’umutekano Jenerali (wacyuye igihe)H. R. McMaster yari azwiho gukunda cyane inyandiko n’imigambi bya Thucydides kuko uyu nawe yari umusirikare wo muri Athènes.
Mu nyandiko yandikiye The New York Times mu 2013, yagize ati: “Intambara iri muri kamere muntu. Abantu barwana uyu munsi kubera impamvu z’ingenzi umunyamateka w’Umugereki Thucydides yavuze hashize imyaka hafi 2,500: ubwoba, icyubahiro, n’inyungu.”
Ikinyamakuru Politico na cyo cyatangaje ko mu mwaka wa 2017 Graham Allison yasobanuriye Inama y’Umutekano ya Trump amateka y’Abagereki, kandi ko uwari Minisitiri w’Ingabo James Mattis yari azi neza ibikorwa bya Thucydides.
Mu kiganiro yagiranye na GQ muri Gashyantare 2018, Steve Bannon, wahoze ari umujyanama wa Trump kandi na we ukunda amateka ya Thucydides, yabajijwe niba ahangayikishijwe n’uko haramutse habaye amakimbirane yeruye n’Ubushinwa “Amerika ishobora gutsindwa.”
Mu gusubiza, Bannon yaravuze ati: “Sinkeka ko ari ko bigomba kugenda byanze bikunze! Mbere na mbere, igitekerezo cyose kivuga ku gihugu kiri kuzamuka n’ikiri gusubira inyuma gishingira ku kuba igihugu cyari gisanzwe gikomeye biba biri kugaragara ko kiri gusubira inyuma.”
Yavuze ko gahunda ya Trump ya “America First” mu by’ukuri “yongeye guha imbaraga Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika kandi ikanaburira Ubushinwa.”
