Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abarabu (UAE) zatangaje ko zigiye kuva mu muryango w’ibihugu bicukura peteroli uzwi nka OPEC ndetse na OPEC+ bikazakorwa muri Gicurasi, 2025, nyuma y’imyaka igera kuri 60 ziwurimo.
UAE yavuze ko iki cyemezo kizayifasha guhaza icyifuzo gikomeje kwiyongera ku isi ku bijyanye n’ingufu, mu gihe kirekire, nyuma y’ishoramari rikomeye iki gihugu giherutse gukora rigamije kongera ubushobozi bwo gucukura peteroli.
Abasesenguzi bamwe babona iki cyemezo nk’ihungabana rikomeye kuri uwo muryango, aho umwe yavuze ko ari “intangiriro y’iherezo rya OPEC”.
Minisitiri w’ingufu wa kiriya gihugu yavuze ko kuba igihugu kitakiri mu masezerano agenga uwo muryango bizagiha ubwisanzure bwinshi mu gufata ibyemezo.
Ukuva kwa UAE muri OPEC gufatwa kandi nk’intsinzi kuri Perezida wa Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, Donald Trump, wari warigeze kunenga OPEC ayishinja “guhenda ibindi bihugu byo ku isi”.
Muri Mutarama, 2026, yasabye Arabiya Sawudite n’ibindi bihugu bya OPEC kugabanya ibiciro bya peteroli, anongeraho ko ashobora gukoresha imisoro y’inyongera (tariffs) nk’igitutu kuri ibyo bihugu kugira ngo byumvire ibyo abisaba.
Saul Kavonic, ukuriye ubushakashatsi ku by’ingufu muri MST Financial, na we yavuze ko iki ari “intangiriro y’iherezo” ry’uyu muryango.
Yagize ati: “Niba UAE imaze kuva muri OPEC, uwo muryango uzahomba hafi 15% by’ubushobozi bwawo bwo gutanga peteroli kuko iki cyari igihugu gisanzwe cyubahiriza cyane amategeko agenga uyu muryango.”
OPEC ni iki?
OPEC yashinzwe mu mwaka wa 1960 n’ibihugu bitanu ari byo Irani, Iraq, Kuwait, Arabiya Sawudite na Venezuela, hagamijwe kurengera inyungu z’ibihugu byohereza peteroli hanze, binyuze mu guhuza umusaruro wabyo kugira ngo byinjize amafaranga ahamye.
Umubare w’ibihugu biwugize wagiye uhindagurika mu myaka yakuriyeho.
Usibye ibyo bitanu byawushinze, harimo kandi Algeria, Guinée Équatoriale, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria na Repubulika ya Congo.
UAE yinjiye muri OPEC mu 1967, kandi kuyivamo bizasiga uwo muryango ugizwe n’ibihugu 11.
Hari kandi ibindi bihugu 10 bitari muri OPEC biri mu bufatanye bwagutse bita OPEC+.
Icyemezo cya UAE kije mu gihe Banki y’Isi yagaragaje ko intambara iri mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati yatumye habaho igabanuka rikomeye cyane ku musaruro wa peteroli ku rwego rw’isi.
Iyo banki yavuze ko ibiciro by’ingufu bishobora kuzamuka ku gipimo cya hafi 25% muri uyu mwaka, kandi ko bishobora gufata amezi agera kuri atandatu kugira ngo ubwikorezi bunyura mu nyanja ya Hormuz busubire ku rwego bwari buriho mbere y’intambara.
Umuhanga mukuru mu bukungu muri Banki y’Isi, Indermit Gill, yavuze ko “abakene ari bo bazahura n’ingaruka zikomeye kurushaho, kuko bakoresha igice kinini cy’amafaranga yabo ku biribwa no ku ngufu”.
Nubwo kuva kwa UAE muri OPEC bitazahita bigira ingaruka ku itangwa ry’ingufu ku isi, bitewe n’ifungwa ry’agace ka Hormuz, bishobora kuzatuma mu gihe kirekire umusaruro wa peteroli uziyongera.
Abahanga mu bukungu bavuga ko UAE imaze igihe ishaka kongera ingano ya peteroli icukura, cyane ko yashoyemo imari nini.
David Oxley, inzobere mu bukungu n’ibidukikije muri Capital Economics, yavuze ko uku kugenda kwa UAE gushobora gutuma ibiciro bya peteroli bigabanuka ariko bigahindagurika cyane mu myaka iri imbere.
Yongeyeho ko nubwo UAE atari igihugu kinini cyane, ingaruka zishobora kuba nini mu gihe n’ibindi bihugu byayikurikira, cyangwa se ibihugu bikomeye nka Uburusiya na Arabiya Sawudite ntibikomeze kongera umusaruro wabyo.
Dr Carole Nakhle, umuyobozi wa Crystol Energy akaba n’umunyamabanga mukuru w’Ihuriro ry’Ingufu mu Bihugu by’Abarabu, yavuze ko iki cyemezo cya UAE “kimaze igihe gitegurwa”.
Ati: “Abu Dhabi yashyize imbere gahunda yo kongera cyane ubushobozi bwo gucukura peteroli, ariko akenshi yumvaga ibangamirwa n’amabwiriza agenga ingano ntarengwa yashyizweho n’umuryango OPEC, cyane cyane mu gihe hari ibihugu bitabyubahirizaga kimwe.”
Yongeyeho ko imyitwarire ya Irani nk’umunyamuryango wa OPEC ishobora kuba yaragize uruhare mu gufata iki cyemezo.
Imibare ya OPEC igaragaza ko mu 2024 UAE yacukuye peteroli ingana na miliyoni 2.9 za barili ku munsi, mu gihe Arabiya Sawudite, ifatwa nk’umuyobozi wa OPEC, yacukuye miliyoni 9 za barili ku munsi.
Kavonic yavuze ko Arabiya Sawudite ishobora kuzagorwa no gukomeza gufatanya n’ibindi bihugu bya OPEC, bikazayisaba kwikorera umutwaro munini mu kubungabunga imikorere y’umuryango no kugenzura isoko rya peteroli.
Yemeza ko ibi bishobora kuzahindura cyane imiterere ya politiki n’ubukungu mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati ndetse no ku isoko rya peteroli ku isi
